Resources & Industries ›› 2019, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (6): 20-29.DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20191206.006
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YIN Qingmin, WU Yi
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尹庆民,吴 益
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Abstract: Water, energy and food are three vital resources, their coordinated development provides a basis for the sustainable development of economy and society. This paper establishes an evaluation index system for Water-Energy-Food (WEF), weighted by means of entropy and variation coefficient, and calculates the coordinated development level of WEF system by means of coupling model, which is compared with WEF system by Gray Verhulst model during 2018 to 2027. The result shows a rising comprehensive evaluation index, a high coupling level of WEF system during 2002 to 2017, whose coupling coordination has undergone transition, generally coordinated and highly coordinated, and will keep premium coordination in the period of 2018 to 2027. The energy development level will still be behind water and food. This paper presents suggestions on intensifying energy developing efficiency in order to push a sustainable development of economy.
Key words: water-energy-food, coupling, coordination, gray predication
摘要: 水、能源、粮食作为3大重要资源,其协调发展是经济社会可持续发展的重要基础。文章首先构建水-能源-粮食(W-E-F)系统的综合评价指标体系,然后采用熵值法和变异系数法对指标赋权,并利用耦合模型度量 W-E-F系统的协调发展水平,最后将其与水-能源、水-粮食和能源-粮食系统对比分析,并基于灰色Verhulst模型预测W-E-F系统2018—2027年的耦合协调度。结果显示:2002—2017年我国W-E-F系统的综合评价指数呈上升趋势;2002—2017年W-E-F系统的耦合度平均为高水平耦合;2002—2017年W-E-F系统的耦合协调经历了过渡、基本协调和高度协调3个阶段,并在2018—2027年将保持优质协调,但能源的发展水平仍滞后于水资源与粮食,因此,需加强能源的开发利用率,以推动经济社会的可持续发展。
关键词: 水-能源-粮食, 耦合, 协调, 灰色预测
CLC Number:
F062.1
YIN Qingmin, WU Yi. CASES STUDIES ON WATER-ENERGY-FOOD COUPLING COORDINATED DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA[J]. Resources & Industries, 2019, 21(6): 20-29.
尹庆民,吴益. 中国水-能源-粮食耦合协调发展实证分析[J]. 资源与产业, 2019, 21(6): 20-29.
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URL: https://www.resourcesindustries.net.cn/EN/10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20191206.006
https://www.resourcesindustries.net.cn/EN/Y2019/V21/I6/20
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