Abstract: This paper, based on policy goals, predicts the new energy vehicles, and their loaded production and used Li ion batteries for 2016-2025, including LiFePO4 and LiMn1xyNixCo-yO-2, calculates the demand of five non ferrous metals, lithium, aluminum, copper, nickel and cobalt under two scenarios. In 2025 the demand of five above stated metals will be 182.3 to 757.3kt, of which lithium 8.1-33.2kt, aluminum 88.4-373.6kt, copper 52.0-226.9kt, nickel 16.9-61.8kt, cobalt 16.9-61.8kt. Compared with their production in 2014, all may not meet the demand in 2025 with the exception of aluminum, especially cobalt and lithium.

Key words: non ferrous metal, power battery, demand for lithium, new energy

摘要： 以政策目标为预测依据，对我国2016—2025年各类新能源汽车及其搭载的磷酸铁锂、镍钴锰酸锂等几类锂离子动力电池的产量和报废量分别进行预测，计算出在新能源汽车市场两种不同增速情景下，对锂、铝、铜、镍和钴5种有色金属资源的需求量。结果表明，在两种情景下，2025年我国新能源汽车生产需要消耗锂、铝、铜、镍和钴5种有色金属合计18.23万~75.73万t，其中锂0.81万~3.32万t，铝8.84万~37.36万t，铜5.20万~22.69万t，镍1.69万~6.18万t，钴1.69万~6.18万t。将预测结果与锂、铝、铜、镍和钴5种有色金属2014年国内矿产量进行比较后发现，铝基本能够满足2025年时的需求，铜、镍、钴与锂将存在不同程度的供给压力，尤其是钴与锂的供应缺口较大。

关键词: 有色金属, 动力电池, 锂需求, 新能源