Resources & Industries ›› 2018, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (6): 61-66.DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20190110.013
• RESOURCES ECONOMICS • Previous Articles Next Articles
DING Baogen1, 2, YANG Shuwang2
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丁宝根1,2,杨树旺2
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Abstract: China, seating on the top in gross carbon emission, confronts a rising global pressure in carbon emission reduction, which is aggravated by the central and western China in underdeveloped industrialization and urbanization. This paper, based on a cases study on Fuzhou city, in central China, uses binary curve model and SPSS to check the EKC curve of carbon emission and applies descriptive curve graph to analyze its driving factors. The relation of gross carbon emission to GDP per capita shows an upside-down U-shaped EKC curve with the peak in 2013, and then the increment is rising slowly. The major driving factors are industrial and energy structures and their changes, so Fuzhou's gross carbon emission will be rising in a long term, but at a decreasing added amplitude. Fuzhou is in its middle to post period of industrialization and urbanization, and is optimizing its industrial and energy structures, but its "second-third-first" industrial structure and high carbon energy will remain in a long term. Low carbon industrial development and clean energy production and consumption are the path to carbon emission reduction in Fuzhou.
Key words: carbon emission, EKC, driving factors, Fuzhou city
摘要: 作为全球碳排放总量最多的国家,中国面临碳减排的国际压力与日俱增,而中西部欠发达地区所处的工业化和城市化的阶段性特征又使得中国碳减排更加艰难,因此,中西部欠发达地区碳减排是中国实现碳减排目标的关键和难点。文章以中部欠发达地区抚州市为例,运用二次曲线模型和SPSS统计软件对碳排放的EKC曲线进行检验,并运用描述性曲线图分析其驱动因素。实证研究结果显示:1)抚州市碳排放总量与人均GDP的关系呈现典型的"倒U型"EKC曲线,且在2013年碳排放量增长速率处于顶峰,之后碳排放总量增长趋于缓慢;2)产业结构及其变化与能源结构及其变化是碳排放EKC曲线波动的主要驱动因素,抚州市碳排放总量还将长期处于增长状态,但增长的幅度处于下降的趋势;3)抚州市的工业化和城市化处于中后期,尽管产业结构和能源结构存在不断优化的趋势,但"二三一"产业结构类型以及高碳能源占主导的状态还将长期保持,因此,还需要不断优化产业结构和能源结构;4)推动低碳产业发展和清洁能源生产及消费是抚州市碳减排的有效路径。
关键词: 碳排放;EKC;驱动因素;抚州市 
CLC Number:
F205 
DING Baogen, YANG Shuwang. EKC CHECK AND DRIVING FACTORS OF CARBON EMISSION IN FUZHOU [J]. Resources & Industries, 2018, 20(6): 61-66.
丁宝根,杨树旺. 抚州市碳排放的EKC检验及驱动因素分析 [J]. 资源与产业, 2018, 20(6): 61-66.
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URL: https://www.resourcesindustries.net.cn/EN/10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20190110.013
https://www.resourcesindustries.net.cn/EN/Y2018/V20/I6/61
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