Abstract:

Mining rights are of values with time, so it is vital to calculate their values at future specific time. This paper gives introduction to a method based on DCF, and evaluates its limits and instability. Another formula has been derived from European Call Option Pricing Theory as well. These two methods with pros and cons, respectively, are applicable to different environments, hence the paper presents a new method based on the weighted average as the final evaluation results. Based on a case study in sensitivity, the new method can rationally calculate the future values and avoid the vulnerabilities of applying DCF and lack in considering risks.

Key words: future values of mining rights, DCF, European Call Option, weighted average

摘要：

鉴于矿业权的时间价值，如何合理计算其将来某一特定时刻的价值在经济生活中愈显重要。文章介绍了基于折现思想的将来价值估算，评价了其局限性和不稳定性，并从金融数学中欧式期权定价理论出发，推导出了基于欧式期权定价理论的矿业权将来价值估算公式。由于两种方法各有优劣，分别适用于一定环境，提出取两种方法的加权平均值为最终评价结果的想法。随后的案例估算结果及敏感性分析表明：新方法可以合理计算出将来价值并且能有效克服折现法主观性及对风险考虑不足的弱点。

关键词: 矿业权将来价值, 折现法, 欧式看涨期权, 加权平均