Abstract:

This paper, based on the survey data of 356 farmers in Zhejiang and Hebei provinces, analyzes features of farmland transfer in typical areas, applies Logit model and Tobit model to measure the farmland transfers and their factors from transfer-in and transfer-out, and reveals that transfer-in is closely related to existing farmland areas, annual rents and transfer periods, and that transferin farmland scale is also connected to host ages and health, and Transfer-out to existing farmland areas, annual rents, transfer period and host ages, and transfer-out farmland scale to host ages, agricultural labors, annual rents, transfer period, host professions and health.

Key words: farmland transfer, farmers, factors, Logit model, Tobit model

摘要：

本文基于浙江、河北两省6县（市）356户农户的抽样调查数据，对典型地区农民耕地流转行为特征进行了分析，并采用Logit模型和Tobit模型分别从转入和转出两个方面对农民耕地流转行为及规模的影响因素进行了测算。结果表明，农户转入耕地行为及规模均与现有耕地面积、年流转租金和流转的期限密切相关。同时，转入耕地的规模还与户主年龄和户主健康状况有相关关系；农户转出耕地行为与现有耕地面积、年流转租金、流转期限与户主年龄密切相关，转出耕地的规模与户主年龄、农业劳动力人数、年流转租金、流转期限、户主从事的职业和健康状况密切相关。

关键词: 耕地流转, 农民, 影响因素, Logit模型, Tobit模型