Abstract:

This paper, based on a brief introduction to Beijing’s development, sets up an index system to evaluate the land resources load capacity from population, construction scale, economy and ecology, applies mean variance analysis to evaluate Beijing’s land resources load capacity, and shows that, during 2004 to 2008, population load which is of high capacity and ecological load rose continuously; construction scale load fell with a low capacity; and economic load rose at a higher capacity. In general, Beijing’s land resources comprehensive load capacity is always rising until 2008. This paper presents approaches to Beijing’s land resources load capacity.

Key words: Beijing, land resources, load capacity, mean variance analysis

摘要：

首先介绍了北京市城市发展概况，并从土地资源人口承载力、建设规模承载力、经济承载力和生态承载力4个方面构筑了土地资源承载力评价指标体系，采用均方差分析法， 对北京市土地资源承载力状况进行评价，结果表明：2004—2008年，土地资源人口承载能力和生态承载力不断上升，并且人口承载力处于高承载状态；土地资源建设规模承载力不断下降，承载能力较低；土地资源经济承载力是持续上升，处于较高的承载状态；综合各单项承载力评价，北京市土地资源综合承载力一直处于上升态势， 2008年承载能力为较高级。最后，提出了提升土地资源承载力的对策建议。

关键词: 北京, 土地资源, 承载力, 均方差分析法