Abstract: This paper selects cargo throughput in Liaoning's coastal ports as indicator of port development, and regional GDP and comprehensive employment as regional economy indictor to establish a vector auto regression (VAR) model taking port development as independent variable and regional economy as dependent variable, and uses Granger causality test and Impulse analysis to study their interaction between two variables. Results show a continuously stable balance between ports and economic growth, with port throughput as Granger genesis of regional GDP and comprehensive employment, meaning port throughput as a leading indicator for economic growth. Port throughput keeps same pace with growing economy so that coastal ports are becoming a substantial basis for hinterland economy. This paper presents suggestions on intensifying infrastructural construction, expanding port industrial size, consolidating port resources, optimizing commercial environment, adjusting Liaoning's industrial structure, advancing industrial transformation, and materializing sustainable development of economy to ensure a sound interaction between ports and cities in Liaoning province.

Key words: ports and regional economy, VAR model, impulse response, variance decomposition

摘要： 论文以辽宁省沿海港口作为研究对象，选取港口货物吞吐量作为衡量港口发展的指标，区域生产总值、综合就业人数作为区域经济指标，并以港口发展指标为自变量，区域经济指标为因变量，建立向量自回归（vector autoregression，VAR）模型，利用格兰杰因果检验、脉冲分析等方法对两组变量进行因果关系和相互作用情况分析。研究结果表明：港口发展与区域经济增长之间具有稳定且持续的均衡关系；港口货物吞吐量是区域生产总值和综合就业人数的格兰杰成因；港口货物吞吐量是影响区域经济增长的主要因素，而区域经济增长并非港口货物吞吐量的主要影响因素；港口货物吞吐量与经济社会发展保持了同步快速增长的态势，沿海港口已成为腹地经济发展的有力支撑和重要基础。为保证辽宁省沿海港口与区域经济良性互动发展，论文提出以下建议：1）应加大港口基础设施建设水平、扩大临港产业规模、健全临港产业链条，实现港口间的资源整合；2）应持续优化营商环境、调整辽宁省产业结构、推动产业转型升级，实现区域经济的可持续增长。

关键词: 港口与区域经济, VAR模型, 脉冲响应, 方差分解