Abstract: This paper, based on the panel data of Jiangsu's 53 cities (counties) from 2000 to 2023, uses entropy, coupling model, Gini index and geographical detector to study spatio-temporal coupling evolution and factors between new urbanization and grain security, providing references for regional coordinated development and national grain security. New urbanization comprehensive index of Jiangsu's cities (counties) shows a fluctuated rising trend, averaging at 0.012 2-0.012 4. Southern Jiangsu leads the development, but some cities are facing decreasing population and industrial transformation pressure. Northern Jiangsu is the major grain producing area, and its grain security is at 0.006 6-0.007 0, suggesting a boosting grain security. Coupling between Jiangsu's new urbanization and grain security is climbing in a fluctuating way with obvious spatial variance, showing a pattern of “north ＞center＞south”. Northern Jiangsu's high coupling areas have been spreading; central Jiangsu is at middle coupling with a “rising-then-falling” process; southern Jiangsu is at low to middle coupling due to industrialization and urbanization. Driving forces of coupling development between new urbanization and grain security are mainly gross profits of scaled industrial entities and patents, indicating the leading role of economic energy and innovation. Non-linear interaction exists among driving forces. The interactive impact between gross production of agriculture-forestry-husbandry-fishery and patents is up to 0.898 4, forming a synergy of “industrial upgrade-rural & urban development”. The overall coupling between Jiangsu's new urbanization and grain security shows a staged rising feature with regional imbalance being expanded. Jiangsu needs to stabilize grain acreage, use technical innovation to increase production, optimize real estate investment and urban planning to avoid disordered expansion, boost regional industrial coalition and ecological compensation, and advance northern Jiangsu's agricultural mechanization and featured industries, so as to reach a deep integration of new urbanization and grain security and high-quality development. 

Key words: new development pattern, new urbanization, grain security, coupling degree, Jiangsu province

摘要： 基于2000—2023年江苏省53个县市的面板数据，综合运用熵值法、耦合度模型、基尼系数、地理探测器等探讨各县市新型城镇化水平与粮食安全水平的时空耦合演化特征及关键影响因素，为推动区域协调发展、保障国家粮食安全提供决策依据。研究表明：1）在研究时段内，江苏省各县市新型城镇化水平综合指数呈现出波动上升的态势，均值稳定在0.012 2~0.012 4，苏南地区发展处于领先地位，但部分县市面临着人口红利衰减和产业转型压力。粮食安全水平均值为0.006 6~0.007 0，苏北地区作为粮食主产区，保障能力持续增强。2）江苏省新型城镇化与粮食安全耦合度波动上升，空间差异性显著，呈现出“苏北＞苏中＞苏南”的格局，苏北高耦合度区域不断扩张，苏中以中等耦合为主，且经历了先升后降的过程，苏南受工业化、城镇化影响，以低和中等耦合度为主。3）在新型城镇化和粮食安全耦合发展水平驱动机制方面，规模以上工业企业利润总额和专利申请授权量是关键影响因素，体现了经济活力和创新能力的核心作用。各驱动因子间存在非线性交互作用，其中农林牧渔总产值与专利申请授权量的交互影响力达0.898 4，形成了“产业升级-城乡共促”的协同效应。4）江苏省新型城镇化与粮食安全耦合度整体呈现出“阶梯式上升”的特征，区域发展不均衡性扩大。未来需要进一步稳定粮食耕种面积，依托农业科技创新提升单产，优化房地产投资与城市规划，避免出现无序扩张的情况，同时加强区域间产业协作与生态补偿，推动苏北农业机械化与特色产业发展，以此来实现新型城镇化与粮食安全的深度融合与高质量协同发展。

关键词: 新发展格局, 新型城镇化, 粮食安全, 耦合度, 江苏省