Study on carbon emission factors and
scenario prediction of Heilongjiang’s industrial sectors is of significance to
reach Heilongjiang’s green low-carbon development under the background of
carbon peaking and carbon neutralization. This paper uses IPCC to estimate
Heilongjiang’s historical industrial carbon emission, and applies extended
STIRPAT model to determine the six variables from population, economy and
technology, square of GDP per capita, population scale, gross industrial
production, industrial energy consumption, energy consuming efficiency and
energy structure, and employes ridge regression to establish a carbon emission
factor model by removing the multi-collinearity of independent variables. This
paper also studies Heilongjiang’s social and economic reality from economic
development, population scale, energy consumption and energy consumption
efficiency, and determines the increment of independent variables combined with
macroscopic policies, and predicts its 2020 to 2050 Heilongjiang’s appropriate
industrial carbon emission under three scenarios, benchmark, low-carbon and
highly-energy-consuming. Heilongjiang’s industrial low-carbon development is
facing a huge demand for fossil energy and insufficient energy conversion
efficient. Among the six factors impacting industrial carbon emission, square
of GDP per capita, gross industrial production, industrial energy consumption
and energy structure promote its industrial carbon emission, of which
industrial energy consumption works the most, while population scale and energy
consuming efficiency play on the contrast. Heilongjiang’s industrial carbon
emission shows an increasing-then-decreasing evolutionary trend under the all
three scenarios, varying in peaking time and heights, 71.35 millions tons in
2030 under the low-carbon scenario, 89.97 millions tons in 2035 under the
benchmark scenario, and 123.68 millions tons in 2045 under the highly-energy-consuming
scenario. This paper presents suggestions on largely adjusting industrial
energy use structure, focusing on energy technical conversion and upgrade, and
perfecting low-carbon green policies.
