考虑交叉价格弹性的城市天然气分时定价研究

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20241029.004

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 近年来，全国各地天然气“气荒”现象突出，为缓解天然气使用压力，除了稳定的天然气进口外，有效的定价方式是其中关键。随着天然气需求区域及消费人群的增多，城市管网平稳运行压力增大，要求为天然气寻求能够实现缩小峰谷负荷差、维护市场稳定的定价方式。论文建立了对工业用户基于自弹性和交叉价格弹性的需求响应模型，考虑天然气价格自弹性以及不同时段间的交叉弹性的双重影响，并以此为基础，构建了分时定价仿真模型，对北京的城市天然气终端消费状况进行仿真模拟和分析。结果表明，1)分时定价实施效果峰同时段价格上调比例（峰谷价格差）之间成正相关，同居民用户天然气消费量占总用气量的比重呈负相关，居民消费占比越大，实施效果越差。2)天然气价格自弹性与交叉价格弹性对于分时定价政策效果有明显的重要作用。在不考虑政府对于燃气公司或者工业用户给予补贴等情况下，分时定价并不能实现燃气公司、工业用户等主体多方共赢，只能完成一方利益向另一方转移。总体而言，在一定条件下，在分时定价是削峰补谷，保障城市燃气管网稳定运营的有效措施，在分析分时定价政策时，须同时考虑上述因素才能更好地模拟市场运行情况。

关键词: 动态定价理论, 天然气分时定价, 需求响应, 城市燃气管网, 交叉价格弹性

Abstract: In recent years, shortage of gas frequently happens nationwide. To mitigate the pressure of gas use, effective pricing is the key besides a stable imported source. As gas demands are surging and consumers are increasing, it requires pipeline pressure to be increased for a stable running, which demands a right gas pricing means that can minimize peak-valley load difference and maintain a stable market. This paper establishes a demand-response model based on self-elasticity and cross-price elasticity for industrial users in consideration of dual impacts of gas price’s self-elasticity and cross elasticity during different periods. A pricing simulation model is thus built to study Beijing‘s gas end consumption market. Results of time-of-use pricing are positively related to increased price proportion (peak-valley price difference), negatively to users’ gas consumption proportion to total consumption, the higher users‘ consumption, the worse results. Gas price’s self-elasticity and cross-price elasticity play a key role time-of-use pricing policy, which can not reach a multiple-win among gas providers and industrial users without considering governmental allowances on gas providers and industrial users, only beneficial to either. Under specific conditions, time-of-use pricing is an effective way in decreasing-peak-use-increasing-valley-use to guarantee a stable pipeline running. Above-factors have to be considered to better simulate the marketing when studying time-of-use pricing policy.

Key words: dynamic pricing theory, gas time-of-use pricing, demand-response, urban gas pipeline, cross-price elasticity

中图分类号:

F205

徐斌, 邓冰洁. 考虑交叉价格弹性的城市天然气分时定价研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2024, 26(5): 114-127.

XU Bin, DENG Bingjie. TIME-OF-USE PRICING STUDY ON UBAN GAS IN CONSIDERATION OF CROSS-PRICE ELASTICITY[J]. Resources & Industries, 2024, 26(5): 114-127.

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