江苏省碳排放特征分析及达峰预测

doi:10.13776j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20230509.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 开展典型省域的碳排放核算及碳达峰方案研究，为实现国家“双碳”目标进行有益的地方性探索。以构建碳排放核算与碳峰值预测关联性的思路框架为前提，从能源消费、工农业生产及废弃物处理等方面核算江苏省碳排放量，总结区域碳排放与能源利用和产业结构的阶段性特征，进而基于Kaya恒等式模型设定关键因子，根据人口、经济增长与能源结构等进行发展潜力预测，合理设计未来低、中、高3种碳达峰情景，以期为制定碳减排路径及碳达峰方案提供启示与建议。研究表明：1）2005—2019年江苏省碳排放小幅波动上升但增速明显放缓，碳排放总量增长了1.11倍，高碳的能源和产业结构仍然是碳排放增长的主要原因，能源消费和工业生产的碳排放量占比高达90%以上，水稻生产和生活垃圾焚烧也是主要碳源。2）人口、经济增长、能源强度及结构等因素与未来碳排放变化密切相关。比较2020—2030年3种达峰情景，低值约束方案预计2027年江苏省碳排放达到峰值10.26亿t，比中、高值达峰方案的2030年提前了3年，峰值分别减少0.54亿t和1.12亿t。低值方案较为符合国际规律，有利于碳减排及碳中和国家目标的达成。为了尽快驱动江苏省碳排放主动达峰并进入下行空间，提出江苏省在保持经济稳定的同时，要控制碳排放增长规模，促进低值达峰方案的顺利实施，关注可再生能源的清洁替代以及制造业、交通运输业、建筑业及农业的低碳技术应用。

关键词: 碳排放清单, 碳达峰, 情景预测, Kaya模型, 江苏省

Abstract: Carbon emission estimation and peak planning are effective local attempts to materialize nation ‘s “dual-carbon” objective. This paper, based on the connection between carbon emission estimation and carbon peaking forecast,estimates Jiangsu ‘s carbon emission from energy consumption, industrial and agricultural production and waste disposal,overviews the phased features of regional carbon emission, energy use and industrial structures, and uses Kaya formula to set up key factors,which are employed to forecast the developing potential of population, economic growth and energy structures. Carbon reduction paths and carbon peaking plans are designed under low, middle and high carbon peaking scenarios. Jiangsu ‘s carbon emission from 2005 to 2019 shows a fluctuated increment at a gentle speed, and increases by 1.11 times, mainly contributed by high-carbon energy and industrial structures, up to 90% from energy consumption and industrial production, along with rice planting and solid waste incineration. Future carbon emission is closely related to population, economic growth, energy intensity, energy structure. Among three carbon peaking scenarios from 2020 to 2030, Jingsu ‘s carbon emission will peak at 1.026 billion tons in 2027 in low constraint plan, three years earlier than in middle and high constraint plans with extra reduction of 0.054 and 0.112 billion tons respectively. Low constraint plan is consistent with international rules, favorable for achieving carbon reduction and carbon neutralization. This paper suggests controlling carbon increment scale, promoting implementation of low constraint plan, focusing on clean replacement of renewable energy and low carbon technical applications of manufacturing, transportation, construction and agriculture while maintaining economic stability.

Key words: carbon emission list, carbon peaking, scenario forecast, Kaya model, Jiangsu province

中图分类号:

F205

高珊, 曹明霞, 李丹. 江苏省碳排放特征分析及达峰预测[J]. 资源与产业, 2023, 25(3): 1-9.

GAO Shan, CAO Mingxia, LI Dan. CARBON EMISSION FEATURES AND PEAK PREDICTION IN JIANGSU PROVINCE[J]. Resources & Industries, 2023, 25(3): 1-9.

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