Abstract: No empirical methods have been used to study water right price influencing factors and mechanism. This paper uses regression model and adjustment effect graph to empirically study water right price influencing factors based on national trading platform data, providing references for regularizing water right pricing mechanism and optimizing water right trading mechanism. The lower the GDP of the receiver is and the lower annual water fall is, the shorter the trading period is. The higher the water right market maturity and the average profit rate of trading owners industry are, the higher the water right price is. The mechanism of trading period limit on water right trading price is subject to annual water fall and water right market maturity, positively if annual water fall is high, and vice versa. Water right market maturity also impacts the function of annual water fall.

Key words: water right trading price, trading period limit, water right market maturity, average profit rate of an industry, adjustment effect

摘要： 水权价格的影响因素、作用机制是现有研究尚未用实证方法充分讨论的问题。为了深入研究这一问题，基于国家交易平台实例，运用回归模型和调节效应图实证研究水权价格影响因素，可为进一步规范水权定价机制、完善水权交易机制提供参考。研究表明：受让方地区GDP越低，年平均降水量越低，交易期限越短；水权市场成熟度和交易主体所处行业的平均利润率越高，水权交易价格越高；交易期限对水权交易价格的作用机制受年平均降水量和水权市场成熟度的调节，当年平均降水量高时，交易期限对水权交易价格的正向影响较强，而当年平均降水量低时，交易期限对水权交易价格的负向影响较强；水权市场成熟度也会显著影响年平均降水量的调节作用。

关键词: 水权交易价格, 交易期限, 水权市场成熟度, 行业平均利润率, 调节效应