Overviews over references reveal that defects are existing in traditional industrial deviation E coefficient, Theil Index and Shift-Share model. Defects in E coefficient and Theil Index are in calculating principles, and those in Shift-Share model are in rationality of selecting reference system and feasibility of data collection. This paper presents an improved model that is used to study China’s 2012 to 2021 industrial deviation via cases. It concludes that China’s industrial deviation is diminishing. According to the corrected model and combined with the current global environment, this paper suggests that the first industry rely on scientific innovation to promote rural labors’ orderly migration between urban and rural areas and to materialize agricultural scale and modernization, that the second industry needs to be upgraded to reach and maintain an independent and complete industrial system, to inputs more in basic research to outbreak western technical blockage, that the third industry be focusing on financing and scientific education, increasing Hongkong, Shanghai and Beijing’s positions in world financing center, using financial innovation to avoid unfavorable constraints and impacts from global financing system, practicing the strategy for invigorating the country through science and education and exploring educational modes appropriate China’s situation from primary school to university stages.
THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS AND VARIATIONS IN ENERGY STRUCTURE ADJUSTMENT UNDER CARBON NEUTRALITY TARGET IN THE YANGTZE RIVER DELTA REGION
The 20th Report presented an objective of carbon peaking and neutralization. Energy structural adjustment is a vital means to reach carbon neutralization. This paper, based on their symbiosis of carbon emission and economic growth, incorporates economic quality development into carbon neutralization objective. In terms of their 2017 inputs/outputs of three province and one city in Yangtze River delta, this paper establishes a regional macro- and microscopic SAM table and CGE model, and sets up a macroscopic economic closed system, which are used to study the impacts and variance of energy structural adjustment on Yangtze River delta’s economy. As energy structural transformation advances, its economic impacts vary. In Jiangsu province, when clean energy has been replaced at 5%, 10%, 15% and 20%, the economic impacts of multiple indicators gain a biggest loss at 5%, loss at 10% less than at 5% and 15%. Economic dependance on fossil fuels varies with location, less in Anhui and Shanghai, then Jiangsu, and Zhejiang receives the biggest impacts. Economic impacts waves as energy structural adjustment moves forward. When Jiangsu’s clean energy is replaced at 10%, economic impacts of most indicators from agricultural, manufacturing, servicing, GDP and governmental income are less than when clean energy is replaced at 5% and at 15%. Energy structural adjustment is a critical approach to carbon neutralization in Yangtze River delta and even nationwide.
This paper incorporates industrial agglomeration, green technical innovation and green economic efficiency to study the impact of new energy vehicle industrial agglomeration on green economic efficiency in Yangtze River economic zone, aiming at offering references for China to reach strategic objectives of manufacturing power and to develop new energy vehicles in Yangtze River economic zone under the dual-carbon settings. This paper, based on 11 provinces/cities’ 2012 to 2020 panel data along Yangtze River economic zone, uses super-efficiency SBM and locality entropy to establish a measuring model, which is employed to study impacts of new energy vehicle industrial agglomeration on green economic efficiency. And discusses mediating effects of green technical innovation. The spatial overflowing effects and regional heterogeneity of new-energy vehicle industrial agglomeration on green economic efficiency also were analyzed. The entire Yangtze River economic zone has become a zoned new energy vehicle industrial agglomeration area, with its agglomerating level fluctuating up over years, and increasing from down- to upper-stream with growing variance. New energy vehicle industrial agglomeration promotes the green economic efficiency in Yangtze River economic zone through consolidating internal network resources and boosting external entire capabilities. Development of industrial agglomeration promotes green technical innovation through competition and cooperation, and development of green technical innovation can also boost economic drives and efficiency, proving its mediation between industrial agglomeration and green economic efficiency. New energy vehicle industrial agglomeration has spatial overflowing on green economic efficiency, varying among upper-, middle- and down-stream. This paper presents suggestions on enhancing industrial clustering construction to play a role in the long-term mechanism of new energy vehicle industry, boosting green technical innovation system and advancing regional heterogeneity of new energy vehicle.
CARBON EMISSION REDUCTION EFFECTS OF DIGITAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT WITH ADJUSTMENT OF HETEROGENEOUS ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION
NON-LINEAR EFFECTS OF GREEN FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT ON CARBON EMISSION FROM PERSPECTIVE OF FINANCIAL ECO-ENVIRONMENT
ALUMINUM RESOURCE DEMAND IN NEXT DECADE UNDER NEW INDUSTRIAL SITUATION
Rapid growth of new low carbon industries like of new electric vehicles and photovoltaic recently leads to a surging demand for aluminum resource, but production of primary aluminum has high energy consumption and large carbon emission, challenging the global climate changes and “dual carbon” goal. This paper uses system dynamics simulation model to forecast China ‘s aluminum resource production/consumption in next decade, and quantitatively evaluates its carbon emission potential under normal, policy and ideal scenarios from a perspective of entire life circle “bauxite-aluminum oxide-primary aluminum-aluminum products-recycling aluminum”, and forecasts the future supply of primary and recycling aluminum. In next decade, aluminum demand will be still fast rising, mainly contributed by the growing new energy vehicles. Transportation will become the largest aluminum consuming sector over construction sector. The premium approach to aluminum carbon reduction is to develop recycling aluminum resource, then to optimize electricity-using structure in electrolytic aluminum.To face a challenging global economic situation, this paper presents suggestions on developing power-saving-environment-protecting primary and recycling metallurgical technologies and methods, increasing development/use and recycling levels of aluminum resource, constructing an effective aluminum resource recycling system, decreasing uncertainty in aluminum resource supply so as to secure China ‘s aluminum resource guaranteeing capacity and to boost a quality development of China ‘s aluminum industry.
RE-UNDERSTANDING EXCESSIVE COAL PRODUCING CAPACITY BASED ON MEASUREMENT AND SPATIAL EVOLUTION OF LATENT CLASS RANDOM MARGINALIZATION (LCRM)
Excessive producing capacity of coal industry is wasting resources, harmful to a green, efficient and safe energy system. Utilization rate of producing capacity is a key indicator to mark the excess of producing capacity, measuring it will be helpful to tell the excess degree of coal producing capacity and its developing trend, which provides references for authorities to make producing capacity policies and for coal producers to make market strategies. China ‘s coal resource is heterogeneously distributing with different burying geology, which determines its regional developing difference. The past measurements ignored its impacts on utilization rate of producing rate. This paper uses LCRMA to measure 2001 to 2017 utilization rate of coal producing capacity in China ‘s 24 provinces, classifies coal provinces into 4 groups, abundant type, moderate type, insufficient type and exhausted type in terms of the intrinsic variance of mining conditions, and applies spatial counting model to study their spatial evolution of utilization rate of producing capacity in these four groups. Utilization rate of coal producing capacity shows a rising-falling trend during the study period, average at 0.82, with excessive producing capacity varying with groups. Production in insufficient type and exhausted type is approaching the producing margin, suggesting a limited room to improve their utilization rate of producing capacity. Utilization rate of producing capacity in moderate type is average at 0.63, meaning an excessive producing capacity. Factors impacting utilization rate of producing capacity vary with groups. Economy works adversely, but positively on groups with abundant resources, advanced technologies and most large coal bases, indicating expanded producing capacity induced by economic growth ignores quality. Utilization rate of producing capacity is sensitive to changes of market demands, a growing demand is favorable for improving utilization rate of producing capacity. Spatialβconditional convergence exists in utilization rate of coal producing capacity, suggesting industrial migration helpful to spatially increase utilization rate of producing capacity, contributing to a diminishing regional difference. This paper presents suggestions on enhancing infrastructural construction and research inputs in western and new producing bases, accelerating quit and consolidation of lagging producing capacity in central, exerting the key “survival of fittest” role of market in coal producing capacity, actively directing human and management resources in insufficient and exhausted groups to abundant and moderate types so as to reach a quality development of coal industry.
ENVIRONMENTAL EFFICIENCY AND FACTORS OF NODE CITIES ALONG CHINA’S SILK ROAD ECONOMIC BELT
TEMPORAL-SPATIAL EVOLUTION OF COUPLING COORDINATION BETWEEN CHINA’S FIRST URBAN MODERNIZATION AND ECOLOGICALIZATION
Aiming at exploring the relation between China ‘s first city ‘s modernization and ecologicalization, this paper, in accordance with the coupling principles of urban modernization and ecologicalization, uses 2008 to 2017 modernization and ecoloigicalization in China ‘s 31 first cities to establish a coupling coordination model which is employed to study their coupling coordination and spatial distribution of modernization sub-system and ecologicalization sub-system. First cities ‘ modernization and ecologicalization level spatially distributes variably, large spatial migrating viscosity, less cities of high ecologicalization level. Cities of middle levels are clustering. High values and middle-to-low values have internal polarization. Distribution of cities with higher levels is of convergence, most concentrating in the eastern and southern. First Cities of high coupling and coordination in modernization and ecologicalization are quite limited, most at high coupling and relatively coordinating stages. Beijing and Guangzhou are in tier 1 core zone with their coupling coordination spatial structure showing “2-classes-mulitple-cores” status from south to north. The coupling and coordination of China ‘s first cities ‘ modernization and ecologicalization shows a rising trend in temporal evolution, with coupling raised to high level from bottom level, up to 70.97% in proportion, and with coupling grading to higher from intermediation, up to 87.10% to 77.42%. Its overall coupling level is still higher than coordination.
Industry is a critical part of economy, and also a major source for carbon emission. This paper uses calibrated gravity model and social network method to analyze China ‘s 2005 to 2019 industrial carbon emission, and applies QAP to explore its factors. The overall network features suggest a rising spatial connection among provinces, who need to collaborate thoroughly toward energy-saving-emission-reducing. Eastern provinces/cities such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Tianjin are positioning in the centers of social networks with a more complicated connection, less difficulties in connecting other provinces and controlling more resources, while the central and western provinces are on the contrast. The eastern coastal provinces are at the centers, with their inner connection in the core higher than in the margin, but growing rate lower, suggesting an increasing inner connection inside the marginal areas. QAP regression results show that the five variables, industrialization, technology, energy intensity, industrial structure and energy industry, can promote spatial connection of industrial carbon emission from their variances. This paper presents suggestions on boosting regional cooperation, realizing regional collaboration, accelerating green transformation in terms of social network features and SAP regression.
MPACTS OF TECHNICAL INNOVATION ON GREEN TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY BASED ON ADJUSTMENT OF INDUSTRIAL AGGLOMERATION
Study of impacts of technical innovation on green total factor productivity from perspective of industrial agglomeration is of strategic significance to promoting a coordinated development between technical innovation and green economy in China and keeping same pace between industrial development and environmental protection. This paper, based on 2008 to 2019 provincial panel data of Chinese provinces (cities), uses SBM model and GML indicator to estimate the dynamic changes of green total factor productivity in 30 Chinese provinces (cities), and applies threshold regression model and adjusting effect model to discuss the threshold and adjusting effects of financing & manufacturing conglomeration on technical innovative achievements and green total factor productivity. Results show a strikingly positive coefficient of technical innovative achievements on green total factor productivity, a positive adjusting and sole threshold effect of financing conglomeration on technical innovative achievement and green total factor productivity, and a negative adjusting of manufacturing conglomeration, and an outstandingly adjusting of local public budget, residents usable income per capita and foreign investment on green total factor productivity. This paper presents suggestions on focusing on their match between technical innovative achievements and green economic development, enabling digital financing to break the spatial barrier of financing, converting manufacturing to a quality conglomeration, properly allocating financing resources in environmental protection sector, and boosting supervision of foreign investment in environmental protection.
In order to construct a green innovative system oriented by governments, operated by enterprises and public involved, all levels of governments issue series of supportive policies via governmental allowance in powering green innovation. It has been an important research topic to study the impacts of governmental allowance on green innovation, and to maintain it as a long-term drive. This paper clarifies the relation between governmental allowance and green innovation, selects 864 Chinese A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2016 to 2020 as the research sample, uses “resources-ability-action” model to incorporate the enterprise’s ESG performance into the analysis framework of governmental allowance and green innovation, explore the impacting mechanism of governmental allowance on green innovation from the perspective of enterprise’s ESG performance, verified by fixed effect model. The results show that governmental allowance have a significant positive impact on green innovation and can directly promote the green innovation of enterprises. Governmental allowance also plays an outstandingly positive role on enterprises’ ESG, encouraging enterprises to care about environmental protection, to fulfil social responsibilities and to increase governance performance. Enterprises’ ESG plays a partial intermediary role between governmental allowance and green innovation. Governmental allowance can impact enterprises’ green innovation through their ESG in environmental responsibilities and governance performance, but enterprises’ social responsibilities do not play a media role between governmental allowance and green innovation. Compared with a lower ESG level, governmental allowance plays a stronger role in enterprises’ green innovation under a higher ESG level. Governments shall manoeuver allowance to reach a high-quality green development, which requires governments enlarge allowance in an appropriate way to improve ESG. Use of such allowance shall be under strict supervision through a sound ESG evaluation system. Governmental allowance is suggested to be differentiated based on enterprises’ ESG levels to increase the use efficiency of governmental allowance.
As economic globalization develops, R&D plays a key role in increasing innovative capacities and booting economic structural optimization. Study on dynamic relation among R&D inputs, innovative performance and economic growth can give us a deep understanding on regional innovative transformation, and provide references on innovative drives changes. This paper uses Shandong’s 2012 to 2020 16 prefectures’ panel data to establish PVAR model, and applies pulse response function and deviation to their interaction among R&D inputs, innovative performance and economic growth, and their variance in Shandong’s three economic zones. R&D inputs show one stage lagging behind economic growth, but faster in capital and Jiandong economic zones with their contributing rates up to 40.1% and 39.8%, respectively. Economic growth plays an adverse role against innovative performance, more in Jiaodong economic zone. Innovative performance promotes economic growth, with a contributing rate up to 85.9% in southern Shandong economic zone. R&D inputs have a low contributing rate to innovative performance, lagging 1 to stages in Jiaodong economic zone. Innovative performance promotes R&D inputs in a lagging 1 stage, but faster in capital and Jiaodong economic zones, with a contributing rate up to 80.4% in southern Shandong economic zone. The results generally show an interactive promotion among economic growth, R&D inputs and innovative performance. In capital economic zone, economic growth and R&D inputs have promoting roles on innovative performance, with a low conversion capacity from economic growth and R&D inputs to innovative performance. In Jiaodong economic zone, an outstanding promoting role exists both between economic growth and R&D inputs, and between R&D inputs and innovative performance, but low in the conversion rate between innovative outputs and economic growth. In southern Shandong economic zone, economic growth and R&D inputs have promotion on innovative performance, but insufficient beneficial interaction among the three.
Advanced manufacturing plays a key part in China’s quality economic growth, mainly driven by innovation, which needs pay attention on how it works. This paper uses 2013 to 2019 A stock-listed advanced manufacturing companies data to study the tie between their strategic variance and innovation investments. Their research & development (R&D) investments vary largely with the strategies; the bigger the strategic variance, the lower the R&D investment. Trade credit financing is one of the mediating paths to impacting their R&D investments, suggesting strategic variance will decrease their R&D investments through constraining the advanced manufacturing companies’ trade credit financing size, outstandingly on those with more constraints. Results are still robust after verified by tool variable and adjusted strategic variances. This conclusion helps China’s advanced manufacturing select appropriate strategic position and advance technical innovation, and verifies the importance of trade credit financing on advanced manufacturing’s technical innovations. Advanced manufacturing companies need to consider the possible economic aftermath if they are off the conventional strategies, largely impacting their R&D investments. Most advanced manufacturing companies are suggested selecting a following strategy if they are not strong in innovative resources; their pursuit of eccentric strategy may be harmful to their technical innovation. This paper gives suggestions for advanced manufacturing companies on treasuring their credits, intensifying the ties with customers and suppliers, which may relieve their financing constraints due to strategic variance, favorable for their technical innovations.
Zinc ore international trade pattern is changing continuously as international trade surges. In an attempt to provide references in making zinc trading policies, this paper uses international zinc ore trading data from 2010 to 2019 to establish a directional weighted zinc trade complex network with countries as nodes and trade links between countries as edges, with which its evolution is analyzed and key and pivot nations are identified. The results show that zinc trade size is escalating. The number of countries participating in trade is increasing, and trade tends to be globalized. China's zinc ore trading size has been ranked number one for many years and China is in the center of trading. It suggests China should enhance cooperation with Australia and Peru in import and boost metallurgical technologies so as to guarantee its zinc ore supply.
Realizing ecological product values is a key part of China’s ecological civilization construction, and a necessity for China to make policy and manage natural resources. This paper gives definition of conceptual content of ecological products according to realization need of ecological product values, and establishes a system margin of ecological product values, in which the basis of realizing ecological product values is discussed from ecological system, ecological product value constitution, ecological product accounting and balancing. Life circle rule is used to build the approaches to ecological product values, including unit processes of ecological system, ecological products, accounting, balancing, producing, trading and consuming. Alternative approaches involve three key steps, producing, trading and consuming. Selection of them is actually to define the trading ways and to turn products into consumer goods. The core in producing stage is supplier and supplying means of productive elements, the key in consuming stage is payer who is related to consuming category of ecological products. Analysis and summary of approaches to different ecological systems and realization of ecological product values provides references for the innovation of realizing ecological product values.
Ecological compensation is a vital mechanism in balancing regional economy and eco\|environmental protection. How to determine compensation standard and how to distribute compensation fund is a hard point. This paper uses eco\|system servicing value, GIS and remote sensing to analyze the changes in land use types and eco-system servicing values of Yangzhou in 2010, 2015 and 2018, which is applied to determine the upper limit of ecological compensation of water receiving area. ECPS is adopted to distribute the compensation fund. Yangzhou's land use structure has changed a lot during 2010 to 2018, with eco-system servicing value dropping to RMB 46 799 million from 55 359 million, 90.38% from water use eco\|system. Water receiving areas shall pay 2 091 million compensation, but the upper payment limit is 1 359 million, indicating an adjusted value by secondary water servicing at 80.02%, core compensation. Compensation funds are to be distributed to Gaoyou (1 013 million), Baoying (508 million), Hanjiang (281 million), Jiangdu (179 million), Yizheng (93 million) and Guangling (17 million) in an decreasing order. This paper presents suggestions on improving water source ecological compensation mechanism from determining compensation targets, setting up supervision and forming multiple compensation.
This paper uses entropy to measure the resilience of Shandongs tourism economy, discusses its spatial pattern, and applies geographic detector and obstacle model to analyze its factors. The resilience of Shandongs tourism system is generally at a medium level, higher in Jinan, Qingdao, average in Yantai, Weifang, Linyi, Jining, and lower in northwest, southwest and southeast. It shows a “U-shaped” spatial pattern that Qingdao of high resilience and Jinan of relatively high resilience are connecting to southeast and east with medium resilience, the northwest is massively of low resilience. The spatial differentiation is mainly contributed by financial guarantee level (X1), resident consumption capabilities (X4), import & export level (X5). The chief obstacles against resilience are tourism major in university (D1), tourism economy reconstructing capability (C2), and tourism economy level (A2).
Under the current economic situation, green development, resource-saving and environment-friendly society lies in increasing green technical innovation capacity, which relies upon internal self-search, and also upon openness to gain global technical overflow. This paper selects 17 nations as China's technical overflow, taking green patent as green technical innovation indicators, employs China's provincial panel data of 2007 to 2017 to establish a spatial Dubin model which serves to check the impacts of global technical overflow on China's green technical innovation. China's provincially environmental technical innovation is characterized by outstanding spatial clustering, with local closely related to its vicinity geographically. Global technical overflow from imported trading largely promotes the green technical innovation where the imported is. Global technical overflow from bidirectional FDI plays a negative role, but internal research capital stock does positively. Interaction between OFDI and internal research capital stock enhances the green technical innovation.
This paper, in order to study impacts of coordinated concentration of manufacturing and industrial servicing on green developing efficiency, uses 27 central cities of Yangtze river delta city cluster as a case to study the impacting degree of coordinated concentration of manufacturing and industrial servicing on green developing efficiency by means of GMM model, with factors threshold effects considered. Single industrial concentration of manufacturing and industrial servicing promotes green developing efficiency, and coordinated concentration does more. Among the controlling variables, economic development, industrial structure, human capital, infrastructure, environmental regulation, foreign capital use and urbanization impact green developing efficiency in a variable way at different concentrating statuses. Under coordinated concentration, human capital and foreign capital use with threshold effects promote green developing efficiency more if over the threshold effects. This paper presents constructive suggestions for Yangtze river delta city cluster on green developing efficiency.
To discover if the electric vehicles have the good energy-saving and emission-reducing merits in their lifecycles, this paper applies lifecycle evaluation and GREET model to calculate their energy consumption and pollution emission of PHEV and BEN, and compares the results with the traditional vehicles (GICEV) to evaluate their environmental benefits of EV. PHEV and BEV are lower than the GICEV in total energy consumption during the lifecycles by 18.94% and 24.72%, with outstanding energy saving advantages on driving. The two EVs have lower pollution emissions than GICEV in CO2, NOx, CO and VOC, of which BEV contributes most to CO and VOC emission reduction by 90.34% and 44.39%; however, SOx has an increment by 2.57 times. Generally, PHEV and BEV decrease the environmental loads by 24.25% and 40.72% compared with GICEV. When considering the negative externality, the pure economic costs of EVs are closer to the real costs, favorable for emission reduction. China will benefit from expansion of EV if Chinas energy structure can be optimized.
