Abstract:

In light of input & output theory, this paper analyzes the inner relation between causes and liability in mining heritage exploitation conservation projects, sets up a risk “cause-liability” model. According to the investor’s risk structures and liability features, this paper applies G1 method to calculate the weights of “risk causes” and “risk liability”, and analyzes quantitatively the risk causes and risk liability, ascertains the investors’ balance in risk causes and liability, expresses the evaluation results with risk Rose diagram, and presents some risk key points. This model is an effectively quantitative tool to balance investors’ benefits and to resolve conflicts, which is also a new attempt in analyzing input & output application.

Key words: mining heritage exploitation, investors, input &, output theory, risk “cause-liability&rdquo, model, risk rose diagram

摘要：

借鉴投入产出理论解决问题的原理和思路，针对矿业遗迹开发项目风险致因与风险承担的内在联系特征，建立了风险“致因—承担”模型。根据矿业遗迹开发项目利益相关者行为风险结构及风险承担特点，应用G1法计算得出了“风险致因”及“风险承担”权重。通过风险“致因—承担”分析表对利益相关者的风险致因与风险承担进行了量化分析，确定了各利益相关者的风险“致因—承担”差额，并应用风险玫瑰图对评价结果进行了直观表达和分析，提出了决策者针对不同利益相关者所采取的风险管理重点。风险“致因—承担”模型为平衡各部门利益、解决纷争提供了一种行之有效的定量研究技术工具，是对投入产出分析应用领域拓展的一种新尝试。

关键词: 矿业遗迹开发, 利益相关者, 投入产出原理, 风险&ldquo, 致因&mdash, 承担&rdquo, 模型, 风险玫瑰图