Abstract:

To study and predict China’s petroleum consumption helps improve rationality in petroleum production, import and consumption. This paper adopts BP neural network prediction to establish time-neural network model, which is applied to predict the petroleum consumption quantity in 2010—2012 based on two different petroleum consumption quantity. This model has been proven to be workable. The prediction results acquired from latest data are closer to the growing trend of petroleum consumption, providing references for petroleum demand planning.

Key words: BP neural network, petroleum consumption, model, prediction

摘要：

对我国石油消费进行预测和研究，有助于提高石油生产、进口及消费的合理性。本文采用BP神经网络预测方法，建立时序—神经网络预测模型，并取我国往年石油消费量中两次不同的样本预测我国2010—2012年的石油消费量，对两次实验结果进行比对。结果表明，该模型具有较好可行性，用近些年数据作为样本得到的预测结果更接近前几年石油消费量的变化趋势，可为石油需求规划提供参考依据。

关键词: BP神经网络, 石油消费, 模型, 预测