Abstract: Initial allocation of stream water discharge right is a key factor in water right exchange mechanism, and a basis in promoting a fair water discharge and sustainable development. This paper, based on the research advances on rare resources allocation, presents an initial allocation model of water discharge right based on chaos optimization-projection pursuit by means of initial allocation methods of water right and waste water discharge right. Projection pursuit can avoid subjective evaluation, sample-driven optimization is more objective. Initial allocation proportion of water discharge right is finally determined through chaos optimization which is used to calculate the premium projection. Case study on Jiangsu section of Huaihe stream validates this method feasible, which covers historical loss, economic development and ecological environment that plays a leading role. The initial allocation proportion of central Jiangsu in Huaihe stream is generally higher than northern Jiangsu.

Key words: flooding-draught disaster, water discharge right, projection pursuit, chaos optimization algorithm

摘要： 流域排水权初始配置研究是建立健全排水权交易机制的前提条件和关键因素，是促进区域间公平排水，实现可持续发展的基础。文章在梳理稀缺资源配置研究的基础上，借鉴水权、排污权等初始分配方法，提出构建基于混沌优化-投影寻踪技术的排水权初始分配模型。其中，投影寻踪技术能够避免主观性评估，由样本驱动得出的最优解更加客观；引入混沌优化算法求解最优投影方向，通过二次载波提高寻优精度，最终确定各区域的排水权初始分配比例。以淮河流域江苏段为研究对象进行算例分析，研究结果表明：基于混沌优化-投影寻踪技术的排水权初始分配模型具有可行性；在初始分配过程中能够充分考虑各区域历史损失、经济发展、生态环境等因素，其中生态环境占主导作用；淮河流域苏中地区排水权初始分配比例普遍高于苏北地区。

关键词: 洪涝灾害, 排水权, 投影寻踪技术, 混沌优化算法