关键词: 碳排放, 广义迪式指数分解方法, STIRPAT模型, 长江经济带

Abstract: Yangtze river economic zone is China's green ridge in ecological civilization construction, and its carbon reduction impacts the entire China's development. This paper, with the background of “stepping up conservation of the Yangtze river”, uses generalized dimensional index decomposition to study the driving factors and contribution ratio of carbon emission evolution in 11 provinces (cites) in Yangtze river economic zone from 2005 to 2016, applies expanded STIRPAT model to simulate six scenarios to predict the carbon emission peak and time from 2017 to 2030, and presents strategies of carbon emission reduction. Economic scale is the leading factor contributing to carbon emission increment in Yangtze river economic zone with a falling contribution. Energy consumption intensity and output carbon intensity are two vital factors in reducing carbon emission, while energy intensity does little, suggesting technical advances is a key factor in promoting carbon emission reduction. The premium path to carbon emission reduction is medium-growth-high-emission-reduction among six scenarios, and carbon emission may reach the peak in advance under the high-emission-reduction mode. Carbon emission may not reach the peak in 2030 if carbon emission intensity is gently slowing down with a relatively fast economic growth.

Key words: carbon emission, generalized dimensional index decomposition, STIRPAT model, Yangtze river economic zone