中国家庭资源消费的二氧化碳反弹效应研究——基于“水-能源-粮食”系统视角

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20240509.003

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 二氧化碳反弹效应是造成碳排放效率改进与碳排放量增长“相伴而行”的深层原因。为了进一步释放我国家庭资源消费的节能减排潜力，本文在探究家庭“水-能源-粮食”系统二氧化碳反弹效应（CRE）产生机制的基础上，首先利用IPCC碳排放系数法分别核算2015—2020年我国30个省份（自治区、直辖市）家庭用水消费、家庭能源消费、家庭粮食消费的二氧化碳排放量，然后再运用可变系数面板数据模型估算家庭“水-能源-粮食”系统的二氧化碳反弹效应，并且还分析了影响二氧化碳反弹效应的主要因素。研究结果表明：1）2015—2020年我国家庭“水-能源-粮食”系统的二氧化碳排放量在30个省份之间呈现出了异质性特征。具体而言，2015—2020年我国各省份家庭用水消费的二氧化碳排放量整体变化比较平稳，基本处于稳定状态；家庭能源消费的二氧化碳排放量整体呈现出了上升趋势；家庭粮食消费的二氧化碳排放量在大多省份呈现出了持平状态或者下降趋势。2）2015—2020年我国各省份家庭“水-能源-粮食”系统的二氧化碳反弹效应类型有回火效应、部分反弹效应、超级节能效应3种，其中家庭用水消费的二氧化碳反弹效应的主要类型为部分反弹效应和超级节能效应，家庭能源消费的二氧化碳反弹效应的主要类型为部分反弹效应，家庭粮食消费的二氧化碳反弹效应的主要类型为超级节能效应。3）家庭人均可支配收入和家庭规模是影响我国各省份家庭“水-能源-粮食”系统二氧化碳反弹效应的主要因素。我国各省份家庭人均可支配收入水平与家庭用水消费二氧化碳反弹效应的变化趋势较为一致，而家庭规模则与家庭能源消费二氧化碳反弹效应的变化趋势比较一致。

关键词: 水-能源-粮食, 家庭资源消费, 二氧化碳反弹效应, 碳排放

Abstract: Carbon dioxide rebound effect is the root cause of rising carbon emission along with improving carbon emission efficiency.To further promote energy-saving-emission-reducing potential of Chinese household' resources consumption，this paper，aiming at the producing mechanism of carbon dioxide rebound effect (CRE) from household “water-energy-food” system, uses IPCC to estimate the 2015 to 2020 carbon emission of household water, energy and food consumption in China's 30 provinces, and applies changeable coefficient panel data model to calculate carbon dioxide rebound effect of household “water-energy-food” system，and analyzes its factors.2015 to 2020 carbon dioxide emission from Chinese household “water-energy-food” system in 30 provinces shows heterogeneity，generally stable from household water use，rising from household energy consumption，unchanging or falling from household food consumption.2015 to 2020 carbon dioxide rebound effect of household “water-energy-food” system can be classified as three forms，backfire effect，partial rebound effect and super-energy-saving effect.Rebound effects of household water use are partial rebound effect and super-energy-saving effect，that of household energy consumption is partial rebound effect，and that of household food consumption is super-energy-saving effect.Household usable income per capita and household size are the major factors impacting their carbon dioxide rebound effect of household “water-energy-food” system in China.The change trend of household per capita disposable income is consistent with the carbon dioxide rebound effect of household water consumption, while the change trend of household size is consistent with the carbon dioxide rebound effect of household energy consumption.

Key words: water-energy-food, household resources consumption, carbon dioxide rebound effect, carbon emission

中图分类号:

程煜淞, 李雨融, 赵煜华. 中国家庭资源消费的二氧化碳反弹效应研究——基于“水-能源-粮食”系统视角[J]. 资源与产业, 2024, 26(3): 62-77.

CHENG Yusong, LI Yurong, ZHAO Yuhua. CARBON DIOXIDE REBOUND EFFECT BY CHINESE HOUSEHOLD RESOURCES CONSUMPTION FROM PERSPECTIVE OF “WATER-ENERGY-FOOD”[J]. Resources & Industries, 2024, 26(3): 62-77.

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