“双碳”目标下江苏省碳平衡潜力预测研究

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20220715.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

核算江苏省碳排放与碳吸收量，预测其未来碳平衡潜力，为推进我国“2030碳达峰、2060碳中和”战略目标及落实全国生态文明建设提供参考。从省级层面选取江苏省为研究对象，建立碳平衡潜力预测指标体系，根据1996—2019年碳排放量核算数据，在碳排放影响因素LMDI分解的基础上，构建改进的STIRPAT模型并设置9大情景，分别预测2020—2060年江苏省碳排放量。同时引入灰色GM（1，1)模型预测江苏省未来生态碳吸收量，根据预测结果，分析其2004—2060年碳平衡变化趋势。结果显示：1)江苏省碳排放增长迅速，人口规模、人均收入及能源结构是主要增碳因素，能源强度及碳排放强度是重要抑碳因素，根据STIRPAT模型预测结果，可将9种情景按碳达峰量及碳达峰时间分为高碳-高增长、中碳-中增长及低碳-低增长三大组合，其中低碳—低增长组合的最优情景3可实现2029年最早碳达峰，峰值为33 003.86万tCO2，2060年碳排放将下降至24 274.19万tCO2；2)碳吸收量预测将缓慢增长，于2053年突破3 000万tCO2的吸收量，2060年碳吸收量将达3 095.584万tCO2；3)江苏省未来实现碳平衡将存在时间滞后危机，碳平衡缺口预测将在2029年达到30 286.03万tCO2峰值，2060年下降至21 178.60万tCO2，碳平衡压力指数将从2025年的最大值12.16下降至2060年的7.84，需承担较大减排压力。由此可知，江苏省生态吸碳能力有限，即使按最优情景3预测分析，未来实现碳平衡依然面临严重挑战。据此，从碳排放、碳吸收与碳平衡3个方面提出相关政策建议，即调整能源高碳结构，加强绿色科技创新，降低碳排放量；积极推进绿地化建设，保护自然环境系统，增强生碳吸收能力；协同发展绿色减排与技术固碳，缩小碳失衡缺口，减轻碳平衡压力等，助力实现我国2060碳中和。

关键词: “双碳”目标；碳平衡；STIRPAT模型；GM（1, 1)模型；江苏省

Abstract:

This paper estimates Jiangsu's carbon emission and absorption and forecasts its future carbon balance potential, offering reference for China to reach strategic objectives of “2030 carbon peak, and 2060 carbon neutralization” (“dual carbon” objectives), and to materialize ecological civilization construction. This paper establishes an indictor system to forecast Jiangsu's carbon balance potential and improves STIRPAT model based on 1996 to 2019 carbon emission data and LMDI factors, which is used to forecast Jiangsu’s 2020 to 2060 carbon emission under 9 scenarios. GM(1, 1) is employed to forecast Jiangsu’s future carbon absorption and 2004 to 2060 carbon balance evolution. Results show that Jiangsu’s carbon emission grows fast, most contributed by population, income and energy structure, but offset by energy intensity and carbon emission intensity. According to the forecasted results of STIRPAT model, nine scenarios can be classified as high carbonhigh growth, intermediate carbonintermediate growth and low carbonlow growth in terms of cabon peak and time. The premium scenario 3 in the lowcarbonlow growth can reach carbon peak as early as in 2029, at 330 0386 kt carbon dioxide, and decline to 242 7419 kt in 2060. Jiangsu’s carbon absorption is forecasted to growth slowly, up to 30 mt carbon dioxide in 2053, and 30955 84 mt in 2060. Jiangsu will face a lagging carbon balance, with a peak deficit up to 302860 3 mt carbon dioxide in 2029, falling to 211786 0 mt in 2060. Carbon balance pressure index will fall to 784 in 2060 from 1216 in 2025, suggesting a big pressure over Jiangsu. Jiangsu has a limited ecological carbon absorption capacity, facing a big challenge on carbon balance even according to the premium scenario 3. This paper presents suggestions on adjusting energy high carbon structure, boosting green technical innovation, decreasing carbon emission, increasing green land area, protecting natural environment, raising carbon absorption capacity, developing green carbon reduction and technical carbonfixing, diminishing carbon deficit and mitigating cabon balance pressure from carbon emission, carbon absorption and carbon balance, which helps China reach 2060 carbon neutralization.

Key words:

“dual carbon” objectives, carbon balance, STIRPAT mode, GM(1,1) model, Jiangsu province

中图分类号:

F205

朱智洺, 桂梦婷, 李红艳. “双碳”目标下江苏省碳平衡潜力预测研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2023, 25(1): 1-13.

ZHU Zhiming, GUI Mengting, LI Hongyan.

FORECAST OF JIANGSU'S CARBON BALANCE POTENTIAL UNDER “DUAL CARBON” OBJECTIVES [J]. Resources & Industries, 2023, 25(1): 1-13.

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